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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 07/03 11:48
Cattle Push Higher, Hogs Remain Reluctant
No new cash cattle trade has developed, but packer interest should improve
by the day's end.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
Both the live cattle and feeder cattle contracts are trading higher into
Thursday's noon hour, but the lean hog complex continues to trade in a
disappointed/unsupported manner. No new cash cattle trade has developed. July
corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July soybean meal is up $1.70. The Dow
Jones Industrial Average is up 356.53 points and the NASDAQ is up 203.31 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 11,400 mt for 2025
were down 19% from the previous week and 9% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were South Korea (3,400 mt), Japan (2,800 mt) and Taiwan
(1,800 mt). Pork net sales of 27,100 mt for 2025 were down 47% from the
previous week and 14% from the prior 4-week average. The three primary buyers
were Mexico (15,200 mt), Japan (4,300 mt) and Colombia (1,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
It's refreshing to see the live cattle complex trading fully higher into
Thursday's noon hour, and to see the spot August contracts fully and
confidently trading above the market's 40-day moving average. At this point, it
seems safe to assume that traders feel as if the market has endured enough
immediate pressure, but it will be imperative that fundamental support begins
to improve early next week if traders are going to keep with their current
upward trend. Unfortunately, it's unlikely that the fed cash cattle will be
able to trade higher as packers continue to build up supply around themselves,
and at some point, boxed beef prices will likely break to fit the seasonal
norm. August live cattle are up $1.32 at $213.85, October live cattle are up
$0.77 at $210.55 and December live cattle are up $0.80 at $210.92. A few more
bids are currently on the table in both regions, but following the thin
business that developed mainly in the North on Wednesday, no new trade has
developed. On Wednesday, Northern dressed cash cattle traded from $368 to $370,
which is steady to $2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average and
Southern live cattle traded at mostly $222 to $224, which is also steady to
$2.00 lower than the previous week's weighted average.
Boxed beef prices are lower: choice down $4.09 ($390.77) and select down
$1.32 ($378.99) with a movement of 75 loads (60.60 loads of choice, 9.39 loads
of select, zero loads of trim and 5.39 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
With the continued support of seeing the live cattle contracts trading
higher, the feeder cattle market is also trading fully higher into Thursday's
noon hour. August feeders are up $0.30 at $309.32, September feeders are up
$0.47 at $309.35 and October feeders are up $0.57 at $307.00. It will be
especially interesting to see if Superior's Week in the Rockies sale (which
happens all of next week) will be as strong as the Corn Belt Classic was. From
a demand perspective, buyers are still in desperate need of calves, but the
concern at the back of cow-calf producers' minds is that some buyers could
elect to see how aggressive an influx of Mexican feeder cattle imports is going
to be. And if that will give them another avenue to buy from and at a cheaper
price.
LEAN HOGS:
It's been a tough fundamental week for the lean hog complex. Couple the dip
in consumer demand with this morning's lousy export report, and it's no
surprise that the contracts are trading lower into Thursday's noon hour. July
lean hogs are down $1.35 at $108.30, August lean hogs are down $1.30 at $106.60
and October lean hogs are down $0.67 at $92.32. In this morning's pork cutout
report, no major declines were seen, but with most of the cuts trading lower,
that was enough pressure to push the carcass price lower, too.
The projected lean hog index for 7/2/2025 is down $0.71 at $109.51, and the
actual index for 7/1/2025 is down $0.77 at $110.22. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $2.73 with a weighted average price of
$109.36, ranging from $106.00 to $113.00 on 2,094 head and a five-day rolling
average of $111.09. Pork cutouts total 226.78 loads, with 211.39 loads of pork
cuts and 15.39 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: down $1.25.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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