DTN Midday Grain Comments 04/17 11:06
Grains Mixed at Midday
Soybeans are the downside leader at midday.
By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
The U.S. stock market indices are weaker with the Dow 35 points lower. The
interest rate products are weaker. The dollar index is 2 points lower. Energies
are narrowly mixed. Livestock trade is mixed. Precious metals are mixed with
gold down $1.00.
Corn trade is 1 to 2 cents lower with spillover pressure from the soybeans
turning action lower after light early gains. The western belt should be more
open in the near term with the central part looking more open, and most rains
concentrated to the east. The weekly ethanol report showed production up 14,000
barrels per day, with stocks down another 514,000 barrels, with ethanol futures
flat to slightly lower afterwards. South American harvest should continue to
move along at a good clip. On the May nearby chart support is the recent low at
$3.55 then $3.52, with the 10-day at $3.61 nearby resistance, and then the
20-day at $3.66.
Soybean trade is 8 to 10 cents lower at midday with trade looking like it
wants to set up a test of the lows after light early buying evaporated with
little fresh news. Meal is $2.00 to $3.00 lower and oil is 10 to 20 points
lower. Crush margins have faded this week with basis trying to firm in spots of
the central U.S. Brazil harvest is 88% complete with harvest pressure from
South America likely to fade soon, while the ral and peso remain cheap vs. the
dollar. Concrete trade progress remains lacking as well, but negotiations are
continuing. On the May chart support is the recent low at $8.79, and then the
six-month low at $8.71, with resistance clustered in the $8.99 to $9.09 range.
Wheat trade is 2 cents lower to 3 cents higher with light profit taking on
the winter wheats after the early week sell off. Europe and the Black Sea area
will be watched closely for further rains, with a mixed start to the year. The
U.S. High Plains look drier in the near term, but moisture is very good for the
moment with higher temps to boost growth, with progress in the north likely to
remain behind pace but should be more open. The dollar remains in the upper end
of the range. Russian estimates for this crop year indicate at rebound from
71-72 million metric tons to 83-84 million metric tons. On the May Kansas City
chart, support the fresh lows at $4.14, with the lower Bollinger band at $4.17,
and resistance the 10-day at $4.29.
David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne
and a registered adviser
He can be reached at email@example.com
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala
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