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Path From Annihilation to Cea 04/08 06:16
President Donald Trump over the course of a day went from threatening Iran
with "annihilation" to proclaiming that the battered Islamic Republic's
leadership had presented a "workable" plan that led him to agree to a 14-day
ceasefire that he expects to pave the way to end the nearly six-week-old war.
WASHINGTON (AP) -- President Donald Trump over the course of a day went from
threatening Iran with "annihilation" to proclaiming that the battered Islamic
Republic's leadership had presented a "workable" plan that led him to agree to
a 14-day ceasefire that he expects to pave the way to end the nearly
six-week-old war.
The dramatic shift in tenor came as intermediaries, led by Pakistan, worked
feverishly to head off a further escalation of the conflict. Even China --
Iran's biggest trading partner and the United States' most significant economic
competitor -- quietly pulled strings to find a pathway toward a ceasefire,
according to two officials briefed on the matter who were not authorized to
comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity.
"The reason for doing so is that we have already met and exceeded all
Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement
concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East," Trump
declared in a social media post announcing the temporary ceasefire, about 90
minutes before his deadline for Tehran to open the critical Strait of Hormuz or
see its power plants and other critical infrastructure obliterated.
The president is set to meet at the White House on Wednesday with NATO
Secretary-General Mark Rutte. The emerging ceasefire and plan to reopen the
strait is expected to be at the center of talks.
As the deadline neared, Democratic lawmakers decried Trump's threat to wipe
away an entire civilization as "a moral failure" and Pope Leo XIV warned
strikes against civilian infrastructure would violate international law,
calling the president's comments "truly unacceptable."
But in the end, Trump may have ultimately backed down because of a simple
truth: Escalation could risk involving the United States in the sort of
"forever war" that had bedeviled his predecessors and that he had vowed he'd
keep the United States out of if voters sent him back to the White House.
Controlling the strait would have been a long, costly operation
As Trump boasted about U.S. and Israeli military success over the last six
weeks, he appeared to be working from the premise that he could bomb Iran into
capitulation.
Starting with the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the opening salvos of
the war, he seemed to discount that the Iranian leadership could opt for a
long, bloody war.
The Islamic Republic over the last 47 years has repeatedly shown it's
willing to dig in, even when it appears to America they're working against
their own self-interest.
The clerical leadership held Americans hostages for 444 days, from late 1979
to early 1981, at the cost of the country's international standing. The mullahs
allowed the ruinous Iran-Iraq war to go on for years, leaving hundreds of
thousands dead. It stood by Hamas after the Oct. 7 attack that spurred a war
with Israel that would defang the Iran-backed group in Gaza as well as
Hezbollah in Lebanon, and created the conditions that led to the collapse of
Tehran-backed Bashar Assad's authoritarian rule in Syria.
Iran's leadership -- battered and outgunned -- exuded confidence that it
could very well bog down the world's superpower in a costly, extended conflict
even if it might not defeat a mighty U.S. military.
Defense analysts largely agreed that the U.S. military could quickly take
control of the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Persian Gulf waterway between Iran
and Oman through which roughly 20% of the world's oil flows on any given day.
But maintaining security over the waterway would require a high-risk,
resource-intensive operation that could be a years-long American commitment.
Ben Connable, executive director of the nonprofit Battle Research Group,
said securing the strait would require the U.S. military to maintain control of
about 600 kilometers (373 miles) of Iranian territory, from Kish Island in the
West to Bandar Abbas in the East, to stop Iran from firing missiles at ships
passing through the strait. It's a mission that Connable said would likely
require three U.S. infantry divisions, roughly 30,000 to 45,000 troops.
"This would be an indefinite operation -- so, you know, think: be ready to
do this for 20 years," said Connable, a retired Marine Corps intelligence
officer. "We didn't think we were going to be in Afghanistan for 20 years. We
didn't think we're going to have to be in Vietnam as long as we were, or Iraq."
The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge
fees on ships transiting through Hormuz, a regional official said. The official
said Iran would use the money it raised for reconstruction. It wasn't
immediately clear what Oman would use its money for.
The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had
considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.
Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., said after the ceasefire was announced that
Trump was effectively giving Tehran "control" of the strait and delivering "a
history-changing win for Iran."
"The level of incompetence is both stunning and heartbreaking," Murphy said.
Trump has a pattern of backing down from maximalist demands
The ceasefire announcement came after Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz
Sharif urged Trump to extend his deadline by two weeks to allow diplomacy to
advance while also asking Iran to open the strait for two weeks.
Two weeks has become Trump's favorite interval to buy himself time when
making major decisions. Last summer, the White House said he'd decide about
launching an initial bombing campaign against Iran within two weeks -- only to
have the president order airstrikes that he said "obliterated" Iran's nuclear
program before that interval was up.
Trump has also repeatedly used two weeks to set deadlines that ultimately
led to very little during negotiations to end Russia's war with Ukraine and
even going back to his first term, suggesting he'd have major policy issues
like health care solved over such a timeframe.
Trump has repeatedly made maximalist demands throughout the first 15 months
of his second White House term only to dial them back.
The president backed off many of the sweeping "Liberation Day" tariffs he
first announced in April 2025 after they caused the financial markets to go
haywire. Perhaps the most spectacular example came during a January meeting of
the World Economic Forum in Davos, where Trump insisted that he wanted the U.S.
to take control of Greenland "including right, title and ownership" only to
switch course and abandon his threat to impose widespread tariffs on Europe to
press his case.
The pretext for backing down that time was Trump saying he'd agreed with the
head of NATO on a "framework of a future deal" on Arctic security -- even
though the U.S. already enjoyed widespread military latitude in Greenland,
which is part of the kingdom of Denmark.
The White House celebrated on Tuesday evening with aides crediting the U.S.
military's prowess and Trump's maneuvering for setting conditions for the
ceasefire.
"The success of our military created maximum leverage, allowing President
Trump and the team to engage in tough negotiations that have now created an
opening for a diplomatic solution and long-term peace," White House press
secretary Karoline Leavitt declared. She added, "Never underestimate President
Trump's ability to successfully advance America's interests and broker peace."
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